So quite some time ago I posted this: viewtopic.php?f=65&t=2205
Official response a month later read:
Although I don't remember exactly what patch that was...Hi there!
Unfortunately, two more corrections eluded the patch notes and I have updated them accordingly! One of them includes the fix for the issue you have pointed out, MasterN (Thanks again to everyone who helped us find this bug with all the data that was compiled!).
So for a while I had to work a bit more intensley and came back about 2 months ago.
As promised here (viewtopic.php?f=65&t=2172) I updated the software and started collecting logs again.
Do we have good news or bad news?
Well.... It's not better than it was a year ago... not fixed.
Collected over 100 logs, more than 17000 rolls...
1.: Total Rolls, Total Player Rolls, Total AI Rolls
2.: Player melee and ranged hit rolls, AI melee and ranged hit rolls
3.: Player melee and ranged crit rolls and warp rolls, AI melee and ranged crit rolls
Same issues as before. BUT I found out that the problem is probaby also affecting ranged attacks.
As before it affects both player and ai rolls. As before it is a slight bit better for the AI...
The final hypothesis is still the following:
There is a chance between ~21% and ~31% to hit a '1' after a miss.
I came up with that for the following reasons:
a) One can roll several misses in a row (so you don't get a '1' after each miss)
b) Simply rolling lower after a miss would not yield such a high amount of '1's
c) One can roll high and hit even after a miss